2000 Presidential Election : The Florida Snafu

 

Why is the election still undecided ?

 

The Presidential Election (and any election) can be viewed as a single subject interest inventory.

 

       We are asking people's preferences among different sets of candidates, and need to determine the modal answer within each voting district.

 

       Therefore, election ballots should conform to high standards of psychological measurement, in order to produce the most reliable measure possible.

 

The Butterfly Ballot : A ballot, commonly used in certain parts of the country (11/16 counties in Ohio), also used in Palm Beach County Florida.

 

The Butterfly Ballot has candidates listed on either side of the page, and the voter must punch out the hole in the middle of the ballot to register their preference.

 

One Problem with Butterfly Ballots

 

       The way the Butterfly Ballot is organized is in direct contradiction to the guidelines discussed earlier in the semester on how to write a multiple choice question :  

 

Answer choices should be arranged sequentially down the page, and not across the page.

       This helps ensure the individual will see all of the choices and removes ambiguity in deciding what punch hole goes with each candidate.

 

                     Bush      >   0

                                       0          <  Buchanen

                     Gore      >   0

                                       0   <   Nader

 

vs. 

 

Bush             >   0

Buchanen     >   0

Gore             >   0

Nader           >   0             

 

 

       These ballots are created by people who are not specifically trained in test creation, so problems will arise.    

 

 

Other Issues in Florida

 

 

 In order to be a legal vote which the computer can count, the punch hole must be completely removed.

 

In Florida, they are now using Forensic Evidence in order to increase the overall vote total :

 

              Indented and Pierced Ballots :  If the pencil has broken through the punch hole without removing the punch hole, this vote is now being hand counted for the appropriate candidate.

 

      

       Issue 2 : Measuring Intention :  Some people want all Pat Buchanen ballots examined more closely.  The popular view is that if this person voted for democratic candidates "across the board", but checked off Buchanen for President, we should assume that they really wanted to vote for Gore, and that the vote count should be changed accordingly.

 

Double-Voting :  Some people also think if a voter cast a vote fro gore and Buchanen, the voting slip should count for Gore.  (Legally, highly unlikely these double vote ballots will stand)

 

The Florida Election :

 

Should there be another election ?

 

       Since the people of Florida now realize that t5heir votes would (in all likelihood) determine the next president, an additional election would bring out a much greater turnout of voters, certainly a different sample than those who voted on November 7th.

 

Are hand counts more accurate than computer counts?

 

       The reason that the vast majority of ballots in the US are tabulated by computer scoring is that computer scoring is much more reliable than hand scoring, which can be affected by perceptual mistakes and fatigue.

 

       If they do a hand recount in Florida, we must ask:

 

Does a ballot cast for Gore receive the same close scrutiny as a ballot cast for anyone else.

 

Confirmation Bias :  Florida wants to know if ballots assigned to other candidates (i.e. Buchanen) should have been awarded to Gore.  Therefore, we look for evidence that ballots should have been cast for Gore, and don't closely examine Gore ballots to determine if perhaps they should be awarded to Bush.

 

Possible Solution to prevent future Difficulties

 

National Standardization of Election Ballots

 

Standardized Ballots would lead to greater reliability of election results.

 

1.    People who move from place to place during their lifetime would not have to get used to a different ballot form everywhere they go.

 

2.    Involving Test making professionals would allow for the construction of an understandable ballot which would cause less confusion.

 

3.    Standardization would help to prevent "positioning effects" commonly found at the local level.

 

 

Despite the common sense nature of this proposal, it would be very difficult to implement : 

 

       State Powers over elections would be reduced by these measures, and therefore it seems highly unlikely that this national standardization would happen before the next presidential elections, if ever.