Case Study:

Drug Design and Development Inc
Sensitivity Analysis

MATP4700/ DSES4770 Math Models of Operations Research

Fall 2010

Students may work in groups of up to three people. You may consult only your textbooks, your notes, online information about AMPL, and me.

Due: Friday, November 12. (40 points)
DDD’s model included data for responses to 40 compounds, and values for two parameters C and ϵ. It would like to know how the solution found in Part 1 depends on the precise values of the proportions and responses for the compounds, and on the parameter choices. Use sensitivity analysis to answer the following questions. Answer them without re-solving the linear program. Include printouts of relevant parts of your AMPL output. Assume that each part is independent of the others. Procedures for obtaining shadow prices and other relevant information are given below. If you prefer to use them, my model and run file are available on the course website.

Note: You may want to solve a modified problem to check your answer, or to try to determine where to look for sensitivity information. That is OK, but I don’t want to see those results! You must give me the information using only sensitivity analysis.

  1. Let C = 0.1, ϵ = 0.05, and use all 40 samples to find w and b. What do you estimate the optimal value to be if y14 = -11.509? What if y14 = -11.5? Now set y14 = -11.5 and solve the problem; you should get an answer different from your estimate — how do you explain this?
  2. Let C = 0.1, ϵ = 0.05, and use all 40 samples to find w and b. What do you estimate the optimal value to be if x1,1 = 5.351?
  3. Let C = 0.1, ϵ = 0.05, and use all 40 samples to find w and b. Assume C is increased to 0.101. What is your estimate of the change in the optimal value?
  4. Let C = 0.1, ϵ = 0.05, and use all 40 samples to find w and b. Assume ϵ is increased to 0.051. What is your estimate of the change in the optimal value?
  5. Let C = 0.1, ϵ = 0.05, and use all 40 samples to find w and b. DDD have tested a new compound containing each factor with a proportion value xij equal to 5.5.
    1. The first time DDD tested the compound, the response was y = -10.6. Use sensitivity analysis to show that this extra result does not change the optimal solution.
    2. DDD measured the response again and got a value of y = -10.7. Use sensitivity analysis to show that this may result in a change to the optimal solution. If the optimal value changes, will it increase or decrease?
  6. Let C = 0 and ϵ = 0.3. Let the training data be samples 1,, 20, and so the training problem then has optimal value 0. Can you use sensitivity analysis to conclude that there are alternative optimal solutions to the problem?

    Can you construct an argument based on degrees of freedom? (To keep the optimal value equal to zero with a small change Δw, Δb, what must the changes in the errors νi satisfy?)

  7. Let C = 0 and ϵ = 0.3, and use all 40 samples to find w and b. The problem then has optimal value 0. It may be possible to decrease ϵ and still obtain an optimal value of 0. Can you use sensitivity analysis to get a lower bound on how far ϵ could be decreased while still getting an optimal value of 0?

    How does your answer change if you use an interior point method to solve the linear progam, which gives a solution in the center of the face of optimal solutions? To use the interior point solver in cplex, enter the commands:

    ampl: option cplex_options ’baropt’;
    ampl: option cplex_options ’crossover = 0’;

    and then solve the problem.

AMPL hints: